Water demand forecast 2050 for Hamburg
On behalf of HAMBURG WASSER, the project team updates its forecast for the water demand of the city of Hamburg until 2045, taking into account current social developments.
Research approach
The scientists will calculate the expected water demand of different consumer groups in order to obtain a basis for determining the long-term development of the water demand for the supply area of HAMBURG WASSER. Taking the current population and employment figures, socio-structural data and expert interviews into account, the information on the most important drivers that influence the future water demand of private households, commerce/trade/services and industry will be updated. In the group of private households, for example, the very dynamic population and urban developments in Hamburg play just as important a role as household sizes and the degree of modernisation of sanitary facilities. The future needs of the consumer group commerce/trade/services and industry are examined with a view to the course of the expected economic development and the efficiency of water use. Here, the project team also draws on findings from the classification of consumption points in order to be able to draw a more differentiated picture of future water demand in the economic sectors.
Methodology
On the basis of an integrated model, which is characterized by a high degree of user-friendliness, the research team will pool all available results. In addition, different scenarios will be used to obtain a realistic estimate of the future water demand development. The scenarios make it possible to depict alternative social, economic and technological developments and also take the potential effects of climate change into account.
Background
For the supply company HAMBURG WASSER, the water demand forecast is an important instrument for the sustainable strategic planning of corporate decisions. The results also form an important basis for the allocation of water rights. The forecast is based on a concept which ISOE decisively co-developed and implemented within the framework of a study that was carried out in 2007, was extended in 2014 for a first update and which is now being updated again based on the results of the classification of consumption points with particular attention to current social developments.
Client
The project “Updating the water demand forecast 2045 for the supply area of HAMBURG WASSER” is commissioned by Hamburger Wasserwerke (HWW) GmbH.
Publications
Liehr, Stefan/Robert Lütkemeier (2019): Fundierte Vorausschau statt bloßer Schätzung. Bedarfsprognosen. der gemeinderat 63 (12/19 - 1/20), 56-57
Liehr, Stefan/Engelbert Schramm/Oliver Schulz (2018): Wasserbedarfsanalysen: Planungssicherheit für Kommunen. 3R Fachzeitschrift für sichere und effiziente Rohrleitungssysteme (9/2018), 38-41
Schulz, Oliver/Stefan Liehr/Jörg Grossmann (2018): Integrierte Wasserbedarfsprognosen. Herausforderungen für die Bedarfsabschätzung in Kommunen. Behörden Spiegel September 2018, 24
Duration
Research focus
Water Resources and Land UseMethods
ForecastsRelated projects
- Assessment of the potential for the use of service water in Frankfurt am Main
- BioFAVOR II – Low-tech recycling of faeces from decentralised sources
- Classification of consumption points in the supply area of HAMBURG WASSER
- Competence Atlas Water – Water Technologies and Water Management in Hesse
- CuveWaters – Sustainable Water Management in Namibia
- Daily drinking water demand – forecast model for Hamburg
- Efficient Use of the Hessian Groundwater Fee
- Eliminating micropollutants in sewage plants
- Environmental Risks and Pharmaceuticals: The Key Role of Pharmacies
- EPoNa – Water Reuse in Northern Namibia
- Evaluation of the International Water Stewardship Program (IWaSP)
- Guiding principle IWRM – Water resources management for the metropolitan region of Rhine-Main
- HypoWave – New Pathways Towards Wastewater Re-Use in Agriculture
- INTAFERE – Integrated Analysis of Organic Impurities in Rivers
- IntenKS – Improving sewage sludge treatment in China for energetic and material utilisation
- INTERESS-I – Integrated strategies to strengthen urban blue-green infrastructures
- IWRM in Isfahan – Sustainable Water Management in Iran
- Material flows of environmentally relevant chemical substances: product line controlling
- MULTI-ReUse – Modular treatment system for water reuse
- NaCoSi – Sustainability controlling of the domestic water management
- netWORKS – Transformations in Network Related Infrastructure Sectors
- netWORKS 2 – Transformation Management for a Sustainable Water Infrastructure
- netWORKS 3 – Sustainable concepts for the municipal water sector
- netWORKS 4 – Resilient networks: how urban supply systems contribute to climate justice
- New perspectives for the ecological restoration of streams and rivers
- NiddaMan – Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Nidda Catchment Area
- PLASTRAT – Reduction of plastic discharges in lakes and running waters
- PlastX – Microplastics in bodies of running water
- PlastX – Plastic waste in seas and oceans
- Privatisation and Competition in Drinking Water Supply in Germany
- Privatisation in the Water Sector
- Proxies and Scenarios for the Development of Water Demand
- Regional Sustainability in Water and Land Use
- SASSCAL – Research Infrastructure in Africa
- SASSCAL – Water-related vulnerabilities and risk in Southern Africa
- SAUBER+ Innovative concepts for wastewater from public health sector facilities
- Semizentral – Infrastructure systems for cities of the future experiencing rapid growth
- Smart Water Future India: Intelligent Water Management for India’s Cities
- start – Management Strategies for Pharmaceuticals in Drinking Water
- start2 – Management Strategies for Hormonally Active Agrochemicals
- Stormwater Infiltration in Wiesbaden
- Structural concept for Trinkwasserversorgung Magdeburg
- Sustainability Performance in the Water Supply
- TransRisk – Pollutants as a risk to the water cycle
- Water 2050 – Sustainable Innovations for Water Management
- Water Cycle an Urban-Ecological Development
- Water demand forecast 2030 for Hamburg
- Water demand forecast 2045 for Hamburg
- Weschnitz Dialog: Communication and participation in the management of restoration measures along the river Weschnitz