Forecasting water demand for the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg

On behalf of the public utility HAMBURG WASSER, the project team determined how much water the city of Hamburg will need during the coming 30 years.

Scientific approach

The scientists calculate the expected water demand of various different consumer groups, using this as a starting point to determine the long-term development of spatially distributed water demand in the area served by HAMBURG WASSER. On the basis of population and employment figures, socio-structural data and interviews with experts, they identify key factors that will be determining future water demand of private households as well as of business/trade/service sectors and industry. For example, in the private household sector, developments in population and municipal planning play just as vital a role as household sizes and the degree to which sanitary facilities have been modernised. The ifo Institute as cooperation partner is studying the efficiency of water use as well as the water requirements of business/trade/service sectors and industry in relation to the course of economic development.

Methodology

The research team merges the data on the basis of an integrated model that is characterised by high user-friendliness. In addition, a realistic corridor of how water demand will develop in future is assessed with the help of different scenarios. Alternative social, economic and technological developments can be modelled with the help of the scenario method, which also factors in the potential impact of climate change.

Background

For the public utility HAMBURG WASSER, the forecast of future water demand is a vital tool for making long-term strategic planning decisions, whose results also form an essential basis for the allocation of water rights. The forecast is based on a concept that ISOE played a key role in developing and implementing in a 2007 study and which it is now updating.

Partner

ifo Institute, Munich

Contractor

The project „Updating a water demand forecast for the region supplied by HAMBURG WASSER” was commissioned by the Hamburger Wasserwerke (HWW) GmbH.

Publications

Schulz, Oliver/Stefan Liehr/Jörg Grossmann (2017): Das integrierte Prognosemodell für den Wasserbedarf von Hamburg - Szenarien, Fortschreibung und Perspektiven. energie/wasser-praxis (8), 58-63

Liehr, Stefan/Oliver Schulz/Thomas Kluge/Georg Sunderer/Johann Wackerbauer (2016): Aktualisierung der integrierten Wasserbedarfsprognose für Hamburg bis zum Jahr 2045 - Teil 1: Grundlagen und Methodik. gwf-Wasser/Abwasser 157 (2), 156-165

Liehr, Stefan/Oliver Schulz/Thomas Kluge/Georg Sunderer/Johann Wackerbauer (2015): Wasserbedarfsprognose für Hamburg und Umland bis 2045. ISOE-Studientexte, 24. Frankfurt am Main: ISOE - Institut für sozial-ökologische Forschung

Kluge, Thomas/Stefan Liehr/Oliver Schulz/Georg Sunderer/Johann Wackerbauer (2014): Wasserbedarfsprognose 2045 für das Versorgungsgebiet von HAMBURG WASSER. Gutachten. Abschlußbericht.

Kluge, Thomas/Jutta Deffner/Konrad Götz/Stefan Liehr/Bernhard Michel/Florian Michel/Wulf Rüthrich (2008): Integrierte Wasserbedarfsprognose - Teil 2: Grundlagen und Methodik. gwf-Wasser/Abwasser 149 (10), 764-772

Grossmann, Jörg/Franziska Meinzinger (2016): Aktualisierung der integrierten Wasserbedarfsprognose für Hamburg bis zum Jahr 2045, Teil 2: Ergebnisse. gwf Wasser|Abwasser 157 (2), 166–173

Grossmann, Jörg/Helmut Hofmann (2008): Integrierte Wasserbedarfsprognosen, Teil 1: Erstellung eines innovativen Prognosemodells für HAMBURG WASSER. gwf Wasser|Abwasser 149 (10), 758–763

Duration

2012/08 – 2014/09