Modelling

In questions of sustainable development one is generally confronted with complex systemic contexts. We prepare integrated models of the various influencing factors in order to understand the consequences of certain actions. 

What we offer

We develop models as instruments with which to analyse and systemise complex cause-effect mechanisms. They enable us to forecast and appraise future trends. Besides this function, we also deploy them to support the social learning process in transdisciplinary dialogues with stakeholders.

In creating the models we use qualitative and quantitative methods such as Bayesian networks, system dynamic approaches, and agent-based modelling. For clearly defined questions we also develop quantitative forecasting models, provided there is plentiful data. One example where this comes in useful is in estimating future demand for urban water supplies. In such cases we incorporate differentiated social-structural and spatial data.

The transparency of a model is crucial to its acceptance. ISOE therefore also deploys the method of participatory modelling: models are drafted in conjunction with stakeholders within a dialogue process.

The benefits for you

• You achieve a better systemic understanding through your full grasp of underlying structures and dynamics.
• In combination with forecasts and scenarios you gain insights into possible development paths of the future.
• We provide you with back-up in the learning process. Participants experience first-hand the consequences of their own actions and can also appreciate the mutual impact of such actions within the network of all stakeholders concerned.
• We give you the option of integrating concepts such as the social-ecological systems, ecosystem services and resilience.