Since 2018, Germany Has Struggled With Droughts. Dry soils have caused crop failures in agriculture. Forest fires and dried-up rivers have marked many people's memories of recent summers. In some districts, bans on water extraction were imposed, and groundwater levels in several areas were alarmingly low. For the first time, Germany's drinking water supply security became a broadly discussed issue. Now, a new report draws attention: according to the Drought Monitor from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), the extreme drought has been overcome following the wet autumn and winter of 2023/24. ISOE researcher Robert Lütkemeier provides insights into groundwater levels, hydrological extremes, and the concept of normality.
Dr. Lütkemeier leads the research unit “Water and Land Use” at ISOE – Institute for Social-Ecological Research. He also co-leads the junior research group “regulate,” which focuses on groundwater management issues in Europe.
The end of a drought cannot be identified by a single indicator. It requires considering three levels, primarily distinguished by their timeframes: meteorological, agricultural or hydrological, and socioeconomic. We speak of a meteorological drought when current rainfall amounts are significantly below the average of the last 30 years. If these rainfall deficits persist over longer periods, they affect soil water reserves, groundwater, and rivers. This means plants lack the water needed to grow, and river levels decrease significantly, leading to agricultural or hydrological droughts. Socioeconomic droughts extend over even longer periods and examine whether society and the economy suffer from water shortages, caused either naturally or by mismanagement. Ultimately, a drought ends when the current water situation aligns with long-term averages across these forms of drought.
Since 2018, we have experienced all three forms of drought to varying degrees of severity. Currently, groundwater levels in Germany have indeed recovered due to the wet winter. This recovery is a positive sign but merely a snapshot. The situation is quite different in other European countries, such as Spain, where intense dryness continues to cause significant challenges.
In many regions, groundwater levels are back to or even above normal levels. In Hesse, for instance, only 4% of groundwater measurement stations report "very low levels," a situation last seen six years ago. However, defining "normal" is not trivial; it is, in fact, highly complex.
The definition of “normal” is typically based on long-term averages, often spanning 30 years, assuming that short-term fluctuations balance out over this period. However, climate change challenges this assumption, as such drought events may not represent normal climatic variability but rather indicate a trend toward more frequent and severe dry spells. As a result, management strategies for securing water supplies need to become more adaptable.
Unfortunately, yes. Climate change introduces significant uncertainties that make it difficult to provide long-term forecasts on the state of our water resources. Climate models consistently indicate an increased likelihood of extreme weather events—heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and flooding—though the exact magnitude and location remain unclear. The years since 2018 may foreshadow recurring, multi-year periods of scarcity that we must prepare for in the future. As a society, we need to ensure that we are not caught off guard by such extreme events but instead learn from them and potentially derive benefits.
The drought has revealed how vulnerable both natural and human-made systems are to extreme climatic events. Extensive forested areas in Germany have been damaged and later destroyed by bark beetles. Agricultural yields have plummeted. Some water utilities could only maintain their services through emergency plans, and shipping on major waterways had to be restricted. These complex insights highlight the need to view water resources not as static but as constantly changing, especially under the conditions of climate change. For our understanding of water availability, this means we must adapt to change as the new "normal." This places even greater emphasis on the precautionary principle.
Water and land-use research must delve deeper into the complex processes driving these changes. These processes are not only natural but also societal, as we address in our research at ISOE. All evidence points to the necessity of social-ecological innovations for a more sustainable use of water and land resources. Research must develop strategies and concrete concepts for precautionary measures, early warning systems, emergency plans, efficiency improvements, and much more.
On the political level, there is great potential for developing cross-sectoral water concepts. Particularly at the municipal level, where there is significant room for action, many water concepts are currently being drafted. These include risk assessments to ensure supply security, which is good and important. However, they often fall short, typically focusing only on drinking water supply and leaving other sectors, like agricultural water use, unaddressed. Improvements are needed here. Water utilities must adapt their infrastructures and management strategies as quickly as possible to handle drought periods and the resulting new peak water demands in dry, hot summers. They can no longer rely on their existing sources always flowing steadily but need to diversify risks and explore alternative water procurement options—whether through new extraction areas, interconnected pipeline systems, or the provision of alternative water qualities such as process water.
For consumers, especially in dry summers, it will be crucial to use water resources more consciously and improve household efficiency, such as by using water-saving technologies or collecting rainwater for garden irrigation. We must increasingly ask ourselves: Which needs truly require drinking water quality? Which can be met with treated wastewater or rainwater? How can we leverage existing technologies for alternative water supplies? The same applies to industry, which also has potential to reduce raw water usage by switching certain processes from drinking water to process water in closed cycles. One particularly interesting finding from our recent research pertains to water consumption during vacations. We discovered that water use in summer vacation contexts is statistically several times higher than at home.
This is mainly because, during vacations, people often use pools or stay at hotels with irrigated gardens. Additionally, personal hygiene may become more elaborate, with some taking more than one shower a day while on vacation. It's important for consumers to recognize that such water use has direct consequences, particularly in regions already suffering from seasonal water scarcity, such as the Mediterranean, where groundwater reserves remain precarious, and there is, unfortunately, no end to the drought in sight.
The junior research group regulate investigates challenges in the management of groundwater in Europe against the background of acute drought, conflictuality and the complexity of institutional frameworks.
What impact does climate change have on our water resources? Is water scarcity also a threat in Germany? What challenges does the water industry face?
Go to Topic Page
