On behalf of HAMBURG WASSER, ISOE updates its previous water demand forecast for the city of Hamburg for the new base year 2020. Recent developments regarding the consequences of climate change as well as effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be taken into account.
Scientific approach
The water demand forecast up to the year 2050 is updated by adapting the well-proven model of the previous forecast to new data. That way, current developments concerning the population and the quantities of water distributed in the supply area are incorporated into the complex model structure. The result is then validated by two supplementary, simplified model approaches. Here, different calculation approaches and statistical methods are used, but in contrast to the more complex model approach, no detailed structures for city districts, economic sectors or consumer groups are represented.
Since the water supply in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was subject to the extraordinary conditions of severe drought and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, special attention is paid to their consequences for water demand in an in-depth analysis. In addition, the development of water-saving behaviours and technologies plays an important role in the model-based estimates of future water demand.
Background
Water demand forecasts are an important instrument for utilities in the sustainable strategic planning of their business decisions and form an indispensable basis for the allocation of water rights. Water demand analyses and forecasts can also identify structural guiding factors for rational water use, show future infrastructure requirements as a result of demand development and estimate water-related consequences of municipal planning. Embedded in higher-level water management planning, water demand forecasts help to identify competing uses and to develop indications for improved interconnected planning and options for action.
Client
The project to update the water demand forecast 2050 for the supply area of HAMBURG WASSER to the new base year 2020 is commissioned by Hamburger Wasserwerke (HWW) GmbH.
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