Method

Modeling

To understand the effects of actions and the complex system interrelations of sustainable development, we create integrated models of the various influencing factors.

These models help us to predict and evaluate developments. We also use them to support social learning processes in transdisciplinary stakeholder dialogues.

For modeling, we use qualitative and quantitative methods such as Bayesian networks, system dynamics approaches, and agent-based modeling. When sufficient data are available, we also develop quantitative forecasting models for specific issues, i.e. statistical models that use machine learning. This allows us, for example, to estimate future water demand in municipal water supply systems by taking into account differentiated socio-structural and spatial data. The transparency of a model is crucial for its acceptance. Therefore, we also apply the method of participatory modeling: In a dialog process, the conception of a model is jointly developed with the stakeholders concerned.

Projects