Water demand forecast 2050 (base year 2017) for Hamburg

On behalf of HAMBURG WASSER, the project team updates its forecast for the water demand of the city of Hamburg until 2045, taking into account current social developments.

Research approach

The scientists will calculate the expected water demand of different consumer groups in order to obtain a basis for determining the long-term development of the water demand for the supply area of HAMBURG WASSER. Taking the current population and employment figures, socio-structural data and expert interviews into account, the information on the most important drivers that influence the future water demand of private households, commerce/trade/services and industry will be updated. In the group of private households, for example, the very dynamic population and urban developments in Hamburg play just as important a role as household sizes and the degree of modernisation of sanitary facilities. The future needs of the consumer group commerce/trade/services and industry are examined with a view to the course of the expected economic development and the efficiency of water use. Here, the project team also draws on findings from the classification of consumption points in order to be able to draw a more differentiated picture of future water demand in the economic sectors.

Methodology

On the basis of an integrated model, which is characterized by a high degree of user-friendliness, the research team will pool all available results. In addition, different scenarios will be used to obtain a realistic estimate of the future water demand development. The scenarios make it possible to depict alternative social, economic and technological developments and also take the potential effects of climate change into account.

Background

For the supply company HAMBURG WASSER, the water demand forecast is an important instrument for the sustainable strategic planning of corporate decisions. The results also form an important basis for the allocation of water rights. The forecast is based on a concept which ISOE decisively co-developed and implemented within the framework of a study that was carried out in 2007, was extended in 2014 for a first update and which is now being updated again based on the results of the classification of consumption points with particular attention to current social developments.

Client

The project “Updating the water demand forecast 2045 for the supply area of HAMBURG WASSER” is commissioned by Hamburger Wasserwerke (HWW) GmbH.