Method

Scenarios and Forecasts

In order to be able to make statements on the factors that are influencing coming developments, we use the scenario technique to establish reliable assumptions about the future.

Together with stakeholders, we develop scenarios in moderated processes or Delphi surveys. Depending on the task and question at hand, we use different approaches (backcasting/forecasting, qualitative/quantitative) to develop scenarios. Our aim is not only to anticipate possible future developments, but also to analyze them and to address the question of how these futures can be achieved. If there are sufficient data , forecasts can be made to support decision-making processes. To draw up these forecasts, we analyze the underlying system interrelations with their influencing variables and interactions. Based hereon, we develop and validate adapted models with which forecasts can be generated.  That way, we integrate different forms of knowledge, involving relevant actors.

Projects