In order to determine the long-term development of water demand in the supply area of Stadtwerke Düsseldorf, the scientists are analyzing the expected water demand of various consumer groups. Based on population and employment figures, socioeconomic data, and climatic parameters, the influences of key factors on the future water demand of private households, commerce, trade, services, and industry are being examined.
In the case of private households, dynamic developments such as population growth, household sizes, and the degree of modernization of sanitary facilities play a decisive role. The future water demand of commerce, trade, services, and industry is assessed with a view to economic development and the efficiency of water use.
Research approach
ISOE uses an integrated forecasting model that combines statistical analyses with machine learning methods (including multiple linear regression and random forest). Using an ensemble approach, different model types are tested to identify the most suitable forecasting model for each consumption group.
Different scenarios enable the estimation of a realistic corridor for future water demand development. These scenarios take into account alternative social, economic, and climatic developments, including the potential impacts of climate change.
A particular focus is placed on determining the daily peak factors, which are calculated both according to DVGW worksheet W410 and taking into account climatic projection data. This ensures that both long-term trends and extreme events are taken into account in the planning.
Background
The water demand forecast is a key instrument of sustainable corporate planning for Stadtwerke Düsseldorf AG. The results serve as a basis for decisions on water rights procedures and the long-term management of drinking water supplies for the city of Düsseldorf and neighboring municipalities (Mettmann, Neuss, Erkrath).
The research project is based on a proven concept that ISOE has been continuously developing since 2007—for example, in collaboration with HAMBURG WASSER and the Harburg Water Supply Association. By integrating modern statistical methods, spatial differentiation, and current data, the forecast is adapted to the specific challenges of the Düsseldorf supply area.
Funding
The project “Water demand forecast 2045 for the supply area of Stadtwerke Düsseldorf AG” is a commission from Stadtwerke Düsseldorf AG.
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